PSG vs Arsenal
Final Odds & Probabilities
Comprehensive market data, implied probabilities, and analytical model comparisons for the 2026 final in Budapest.
PSG are the defending UEFA Champions League holders.
Arsenal are playing in their first Champions League final since 2006.
90-Minute Match Odds
Regular time result market pricing and implied probability.
PSG Win
Draw
Arsenal Win
To Lift The Trophy
Outright market including extra time and penalties.
PSG
Market FavArsenal
Implied Probabilities Dashboard
Visual breakdown of the market expectations across 90 minutes and outright victory.
90-Minute Market Share
Note: Implied probabilities contain bookmaker overround.
Trophy Market Comparison
Market vs Model Analysis
Contrasting the consensus market favorite against advanced analytical modelling.
The market favors PSG in both the 90-minute and to-lift-the-trophy snapshots.
The analytical model gives Arsenal a 55.8% probability to win the final.
Regular-Time Edge
The regular-time market gives PSG the shortest price at 13/10 (43.5% implied probability).
Trophy Edge
PSG also lead the outright trophy market at 7/10, making them the clear market favorites to defend their title.
Model Edge
The model view points the other way, with the Opta supercomputer positioning Arsenal ahead at 55.8%.
Final Outlook
The 2026 UEFA Champions League Final presents a fascinating divergence. While PSG enter as the defending champions and the consensus market favorite across all primary pricing metrics, the Opta model identifies Arsenal as the analytical favorite. Despite PSG's shorter prices, the data indicates a highly competitive and close final in Budapest.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is PSG vs Arsenal?
The 2026 UEFA Champions League Final takes place on Saturday, 30 May 2026 at 18:00 CET.
Where is the 2026 Champions League final played?
The match will be hosted at the Puskás Aréna in Budapest, Hungary.
Who is the market favorite?
PSG is the market favorite for both the 90-minute result (13/10) and to lift the trophy (7/10).
Who is the model favorite?
The Opta supercomputer favors Arsenal, giving them a 55.8% chance to win the final.
What is the difference between 90-minute odds and to-lift-the-trophy odds?
90-minute odds apply only to the result at the end of regular time (including a draw). To-lift-the-trophy odds cover who ultimately wins the competition, factoring in potential extra time and penalties.